We judge probability by how easily examples come to mind.
Plane crash news makes flying feel more dangerous than driving, which kills far more people. Vivid, recent, or emotionally charged examples distort our sense of how common or likely something is. What is salient is not the same as what is probable.
Before acting on a fear or an enthusiasm generated by a recent story, look for actual statistics on how common the thing really is.
What risk or opportunity in your life might you be over- or under-weighting because of a vivid recent example — rather than actual base rates?
Turn one idea into a daily practice. Life OS is a free, private two-minute check-in across the five pillars of a full life — with a Sunday review and a banyan that grows with you.
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