Among competing explanations, prefer the simplest that fits the evidence.
When something goes wrong we construct elaborate narratives. The actual cause is usually simpler — miscommunication, fatigue, conflicting incentives. Complex theories require complex evidence.
Write down all the explanations you have for a current problem. Cross out every one that requires assuming intentions you cannot verify.
What is the simplest explanation for what's happening in this situation — without assuming hidden motives?
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