"I knew it all along" — the illusion that past events were more predictable than they were.
After the fact, outcomes feel inevitable. We rewrite memory to match what happened. This distorts learning: we stop asking "how could I have known?" and start asking "why did I ignore what was obvious?" — when it wasn't obvious at the time. It also makes us overconfident in our ability to predict the future.
Recall a decision you made six months ago that turned out poorly. Reconstruct what you actually knew at the time. Was the right choice truly obvious then?
Is there a recent event you're judging yourself (or others) for "missing" that wasn't actually predictable at the time it happened?
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