Think in distributions, not certainties.
We speak in certainties ("this will work," "he's definitely reliable") when we should speak in probabilities. Good decisions maximise expected value across scenarios — not the most likely outcome but all outcomes weighted by their probability.
Before your next major decision, write three scenarios: best case, worst case, most likely. Assign rough probabilities to each.
What are you treating as certain that is actually just probable? What does the distribution of possible outcomes look like?
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