We see the survivors, not the failures — and draw false conclusions from the sample.
We learn from successful startups, not the thousands that failed identically. We admire the author who quit their job to write, not the ones who went broke. Survivorship bias makes risky paths look more reliable than they are because the failures are invisible.
For a path you're considering, actively research the failure rate and common failure modes — not just the success stories.
What decision are you considering where you're largely learning from visible successes rather than the full distribution of attempts?
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